MODELLING AVIATION INDUSTRY'S RECOVERY FROM COVID-19 BASED ON PAST CRISES EXPERIENCE A research project on the correlation of air traffic and economic development – both in amplitude and temporal sequence.

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Jorgen von der Brelie
Axel Arce Lemke


aviation crises, recovery, COVID-19, air traffic volume, economic development, air traffic and economic correlation


The aviation industry has experienced many crises, out of which it usually departed with a strong rebound. Looking at the timescale, it is justified to argue that about every 10 years, a major crisis occurs. While this frequency appears to be rather stable, the severity of the downturn differs in magnitude. Thereby, general economic development and air traffic development are connected, with the later one being more volatile. This volatility, however, is not just true for the downturn, but also for the rebound following the crisis.


Taking a close look at the temporal sequence of past crises like e.g. 9/11 or the Global Financial Crisis a clear pattern can be identified. The recovery of the aviation industry lags behind the recovery of the general economy, but rebounds stronger. To determine a quantitative relation of how much stronger the aviation industry recovers compared to the general economy, a model was developed based on the data of past crises. With a detailed focus on the recovery phase, this paper gives a forecast on how the rebound following the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to develop.


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