FORECASTING METHODS AND ICAO’S VISION OF 2011-2030 GLOBAL AIR TRAFFIC

Abstract

Forecasting has been a key factor in the planning and development of civil aviation. This paper surveys current techniques in air traffic forecasting. The advantages and disadvantages of the techniques, as well as the criteria for selecting of a particular technique are discussed. Then, the forecasting work of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) is comprehensively introduced, i.e. the traffic data, the methodological framework, and the major models. It involves ICAO’s practices under this subject in the last two decades. ICAO’s forecasting has long been a reliable reference for its 191 member states. In this paper, main results of ICAO’s up-to-date forecasts of 2011-2030 global air traffic, both passengers and cargos, are conveyed.